Artificial intelligence (AI) was one of the hottest topics of 2017. A Gartner “mega trend,” their research director, Mike J. Walker, proposed that “AI technologies will be the most disruptive class of technologies over the next 10 years due to radical computational power, near-endless amounts of data and unprecedented advances in deep neural networks.”
But as much as it is trendy and bursting with promise, it is also controversial, overhyped and misunderstood. In fact, it has yet to enjoy a widely accepted definition.
AI underpins many of Gartner’s emerging technologies on its 2017 hype cycle. However, smart robots, deep learning and machine learning were all cresting the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Of course, after that comes the Trough of Disillusionment. Collectively they will take two to ten years to reach the Plateau of Productivity.
AI is both a long game and already in our lives. Your Amazon or Netflix recommendations are partly AI-based. So is speech recognition and translation, such as in Google Home and Google Translate. But, as you know from using these services, they are far from perfect. Closer to ICT4D, within monitoring and evaluation we know the opportunities and limitations of AI.
In 2018 we can expect to hear a lot more about AI, along with promises and disappointments. Almost anyone who’s software has an algorithm will claim they’re harnessing AI. There will suddenly be more adaptive, intelligent platforms in edtech, and more talk of smart robots and AI hollowing out the global job market.
While there will be some truth to the AI claims and powerful new platforms, we need to learn to read between the lines. The potential of AI is exciting and will be realised over the coming years and decades, but in varying degrees and unevenly spread. For now, a balanced view is needed to discern between what is hype or on the long horizon, and what can we use today for greater social impact. Only in this way can we fully get to grips with the technological, social and ethical impact of AI. Below are a few articles to get our interest piqued in 2018.
The Next Fifteen Years
To get the big picture, an excellent place to start is the Stanford University report Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030. A panel of experts focussed the AI lens on eight domains they considered most salient: transportation; service robots; healthcare; education; low-resource communities; public safety and security; employment and workplace; and entertainment. In each of these domains, the report both reflects on progress in the past fifteen years and anticipates developments in the coming fifteen years.
AI for Good
Last year the ITU hosted the AI for Good Global Summit, which brought together a host of international NGOs, UN bodies, academia and the private sector to consider the opportunities and limitations of AI for good. The conference report offers a summary of the key takeaways and applications cited in the event. A number of webcasts are also available.
AI Moves into the Cloud
While most ICT4D tech outfits simply don’t have access to the computing power and expertise to fully utilise AI, this is starting to change. In 2017, AI floated into the cloud. Amazon, Google and Microsoft have introduced large-scale cloud-based AI. This includes open-source AI software as well as AI services for turning speech in audio files into time-stamped text, translating between various languages and tracking people, activities, and objects in video. I’m looking forward to seeing these tools used in ICT4D soon.
Growing Up with Alexa
Considering the interaction between her four-year-old niece and Amazon Echo’s Alexa, a reporter asked the following question: What will it do to kids to have digital butlers they can boss around? What is the impact of growing up with Alexa? Will it make kids better adjusted and educated — or the opposite? This piece offers interesting questions on the social impact of AI on children.
The Ethical Dimension
The World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology of UNESCO (COMEST) last year released a report on the ethical issues surrounding the use of contemporary robotic technologies — underpinned by AI — in society (there is a 2-minute video summary). The bottom line: some decisions always require meaningful human control.
Amidst the growing role of robots in our world there are new responsibilities for humans to ensure that people and machines can live in productive co-existence. As AI impacts our world in greater ways, the ethical dimension will equally become more important, bringing philosophers, technologists and policy-makers around the same table. Being in the ICT4D space, our role as technologists and development agents will be critical here.
Image: © CC-BY-SA by Silver Blue